The forecast of a lesion of spring soft wheat with dusty smut
Pages: 8-11.
E-mail: Briz2211@yandex.ru
The method of meteo-patological forecast, founded on detection of correlation dependences
between a lesion of plants by illnesses and weather factors for substantiation of a capability of forecasting of a lesion of spring wheat plants with dusty smut is reviewed in the article. Average daily air temperature on decades and sum of precipitations for May, June, and July is taken as a basis for mathematical model of the forecast. It is established that average daily temperature of air of first decade of July and sum of precipitations in the second decade of May had greatest influence on a level of lesion of wheat plants with dusty smut(r = -0.7). As a result of calculations the equation of linear regression reflecting quantitative variability of a parameter of a lesion of plants on a general index of weather is obtained. The lesion of spring wheat plants with dusty smut on artificial contagious background in 2013 by the forecast has compounded 31.3 up to 38.3% (35.0±3.5%), that has completely coincided with an actual lesion of plants. It is established that the long-term prediction on the given procedure on the average is justified on 83%. The given method can be used in any agro-climatic conditions and locates of cultivation of a crop. The compiling of the similar forecasts is important not only for wheat breeding and seed farming, but its diseases protection also.
Keywords: forecast, soft spring wheat, dusty smut, correlation, temperature, precipitations, general index of weather
